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Residents of the Big Apple will discover the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has led his rival by significant margins in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an election that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's power moves, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the party perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A NYC rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on attacking Mamdani personally. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced difficulties in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd